Feeling, yuan appreciation expectations about the play have
the dog was there. Off and on a few times in the exchange rate let go process,
also seems to realize a small part of our expectations. Of course, just to
disastrous of dollars. Over the past year, the inflation, adjusted for currency
against the Chinese currency exchange rate of all trade partner of the actual
down 2% or so, only about 8% against the dollar. IMF (international monetary
fund) than some other economists more value of China's economy, the short-term
prospects. IMF expect the economy will grow 9.6% this year might, CPI (consumer
price index) growth at the end of this year will fall back to 4%. But the IMF
insists, China
to want to continue to maintain of strong economic growth, and let the benefits
of economic growth to get more common share, need to make fundamental reform.
Above reform proposal appeared in the IMF's China economic annual assessment
report. IMF says, inflation, a real estate bubble and the weakening of monetary
control ability to China's
financial and macro economic stability constitute a significant threat, the
Chinese government shall cause the appreciation of Wholesale MLB Jerseys the renminbi against these
threats. China's
representatives are written HeJianXiong IMF expressed some conclusion of the
IMF strongly opposed. Especially the IMF will China control a stronger currency
as the key obstacles blocking reform. According to the IMF estimates that RMB
according to the different calculation method was undervalued in the degree of
between 3% and 23% (20% risk of space also is only estimate). IMF inference
logic is not fresh. From the appreciation of the renminbi will damage China's export
industry starts to, to prevent the appreciation of the renminbi, the Chinese
central bank mandatory settlement of exchange, namely printed RMB buying
dollars. India
may produce too much RMB inflation, and bank deposit interest rate be set in
the far lower than the rate of inflation level. The results, the Chinese don't
take the bank savings transfer to real estate, increasing the housing bust. And
in the number of lending by Banks control trading, the large state-owned
enterprises can borrow money to cheap, and small and medium-sized private enterprises
(most is service industry enterprise) even pay much higher interest rates are
difficult to get the funds required for the operation. IMF for the following
data to prove his point: China
since 2004 average annual growth rate of the economy remains at about 10%, but
each year China
employment growth rate is only 1%. It is worth noting that, the IMF's seemingly
objective report will be the United
States congress and others use. They view China
as rob your job competition, hope their governments in the currency issue
tougher attitude. China's major trading partners, especially developed market
economies have been called on Beijing to lift the RMB exchange rate control,
allow the free floating, is hoping to promote the appreciation of the renminbi,
Chinese manufacturers to blow the export competitiveness, make their country's
manufacturing enterprise benefit. However, in fact the substantial revaluation
would not necessarily let us and European became a big winner. Is calculated by
IMF, the appreciation of the renminbi will only 20% of the United States may be increased by
0.05 to 0.07% economic growth rate of the economy of the euro area of less than
0.12% growth rate increase. Most economists think, for its currency to
appreciate and from China's
export sector share out the vast majority will only be transferred to Pakistan, Bangladesh and lower cost of the
country. Besides, the yuan still may not rise but lower. When the realization
convertible, if the Chinese residents sell renminbi buying higher income of
foreign currency, will lead to devalue its currency. And from the current
interest rates look, investors have RMB income is low, there is a free exchange
conditions sell renminbi motives. So far, improve the RMB exchange rate is
speeding up China's economic growth model transformation, create more
employment key elements of the view of internal decision-making in Beijing is
difficult to get political support, because people Wholesale NBA Jerseys with vested
interests-exports and large state-owned enterprise has a strong influence and
lobbying ability. For now, the market imagines the substantial revaluation is
just a long expected. And investors, he would have died in the expected.
|